That's the question posed by this interesting article in Monday's Wall Street Journal (subscription required), which looks at how a bad influenza year could affect the U.S. economy -- which is already suffering from flu-like symptoms. Obviously, the hook for the article comes from the problems faced by Chiron Corporation with respect to the production of 1/2 the nation's flu vaccine supply. But the article goes further, to try to assess the effect of what might happen if that vaccine shortage results in actual lost work days and productivity during the 2004-05 flu season:

Any prediction of the potential economic effects of the flu this year is fraught with variables, the largest of which is how severe the flu season will turn out to be. Roslyn Stone, chief operating officer of Corporate Wellness Inc., estimates that without enough flu vaccines to go around this year, twice as many people could get the flu. Corporate Wellness, which provides health-care services to about 1,000 employers, will begin giving flu shots to high-risk employees at companies this week.

Based on the average annual costs of $1 billion to $3 billion in direct flu-related medical costs, such as hospitalizations and medications, and indirect costs of $12 billion for missed work, David Cutler, a professor of economics at Harvard University estimates that the flu's effects on the economy could approach $20 billion this year.

The flu is the leading cause of Americans calling in sick to work, with 5% to 20% of U.S. residents contracting the flu on average each year. According to one survey, Americans miss on average 1.2 to 1.4 days of work each year as a result of the flu.

A recent study by ComPsych Corp., Chicago, found that 40% of people who don't get flu shots miss some time at work because of the flu, compared with less than 20% of people who receive flu shots.

"If we have a normal flu season and there are no shots available we're going to have a significant number of people miss work," says Richard A. Chaifetz, chairman and chief executive of ComPsych. He suggests that any labor-dependent industries that rely heavily on performance during the peak flu season in the U.S. from December through March, could be affected significantly. "In an economy that is forcing people to do more with less, this could be a tough season."

Analysis: Obviously, this is all speculation. Neither the public health experts nor economists can accurately predict the virulence of this year's flu virus with any reasonable amount of fidelity. At best, they can outline good and bad scenarios in order to bracket the range of possibilities. Last year was a bad flu year. If this year looks like last year, then our economy is going to feel the pain, and by extension, so will we. I'm not sure what can be done at this point to rectify the situation, given the timelines associated with the manufacture of the flu vaccine. I've got my chicken and matzo ball soup stockpile... do you?