Officers Need Good Judgment


If we had had the guts to face the fascists in the 20s and the 30s, perhaps we could have avoided World War II. If we keep the guts to confront Osama bin Laden and his very dangerous ideology today, perhaps we can avoid World War III.
-Gen. John P. Abizaid, commander, U.S. Central Command, in luncheon remarks to members of the Military Officers Association of America Nov. 18, 2006
This quote shows that Gen. Abizaid should be relieved. Now. Before he can further damage our national security.

Gen. Abazaid, I must confess, is a stud. He is a light infantry leader that has lived the Ranger Creed. His history of command is one of inspiration, of dedication, and I respect his service and his incredible military resume. He is a better officer than I could ever hope to be on my best day. This is not a "perfumed prince" like some generals are alleged to be. He sought out the toughest assignments and succeeded in them. He deserves respect. I respect him.

And he should be relieved of command.

Either he is in way over his head - or worse, he is a "yes-man" afraid of confrontation with his superiors. A history of physical courage is not an indicator of moral courage. They are different forms of bravery. He either does not understand the nature of the threat presented by Osama Bin Laden, or he does understand and prefers to support a course of action he knows to be wrong because his superiors want him to do so. Regardless, he needs to be relieved of command.

Whether or not we had the "guts" to face the fascists in the 20s and 30s is totally irrelevant to the threat from Osama today. The fascists were state actors. Because they were state actors they were deterrable - and because they were state actors they represented a threat to other state actors. That threat should have been, in hindsight, addressed earlier. Many, including Churchill, had the foresight to see the nature of the threat earlier. That is nothing at all like the threat posed by Osama and his fellow fanatics.

Osama and company do not control a single city, much less an entire nation. They had, and have, great influence in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but they do not control either, and in both of those nations they are hunted as criminals and must resort to ambush when fighting even the weak and very new Afghan army. They are stateless actors using the age-old, traditional weapon of the powerless - terrorism. It is not an "ism" like "fascism" or "communism," but is more in line with "anarchism" - both Osama and the anarchists that plagued the western world in the late 1800s used terrorism. A US president was assasinated by anarchists - along with six other heads of state murdered between 1881 and the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. According to the excellent article in the NY Times Book Review, "Paris suffered bomb attacks no fewer than eleven times between 1892 and 1894." Then there were the Red Brigades in Europe in the 1970s, and the wave of hijackings of airliners in that same decade. Did Europe fall? Did the anarchists represent as great a threat as Hitler? No. Of course not. Neither does Osama - and he never will.

To conflate Osama into a threat as large as that represented by the Japanese militarists and Hitler, or even the threat to world peace represented by relatively-weak Mussolini of Italy, is an indication that somebody doesn't know what the hell they are talking about. It is like equating dental plaque to the fascists. If you don't have the guts to floss properly, well, you could face world war III. Really? I disagree. That does not mean I think we should all stop flossing or that I support tooth decay or wish success to the cavity creeps who want to destroy our way of life - or at least, our teeth. It means the threat from not flossing is not equivalent to the threat from Osama, and the threat from Osama is not one that rises to the level of the fascists of the 20s and 30s, much less one that risks world war three. What army would Osama command in that hypothetical war? What nation would he control? The mere comparison is so badly flawed that it should strike fear in our own hearts, to think that the head of Central Command is that poor a military scholar or that un-informed on important matters of national security.

There should not be a "war" on terror. Terror is merely a method. There should be an effort to track down and kill Osama and all who assist him, but there is no need for a "war" on a stateless actor any more than we should launch a "war on ambush" or "war on IEDs" or "war on any other tactic that we do not like." Think "war on kidnappers." Nobody likes kidnappers. They are bad guys. Many of them wish our nation ill. Would a "war on kidnappers" make any sense, though? And does our "failure" to launch a "war" against them mean we are ignoring kidnappers? Of course not. It certainly does not mean we lack "guts" to do so either. It means that using military force as the preferable weapon against kidnappers is stupid. And not using military force against kidnappers or child molestors or drug traffickers does not mean we risk world war three or that the threats will rise to the level of that presented by the fascists and/or communists of the last century. So it is with our "war on terror." And that is not appeasement, it does not represent a lack of "guts," it is just common sense. War is what you wage against a nation-state, not a bunch of fanatic individuals. That does not mean you ignore the individuals, it means they are not important enough to merit the title of "war" against them. Especially when it comes to terrorism.

When Manual Noriega declared war on the United States, we did not declare war back. We invaded, deposed him, and put him in prison on civilian charges of drug trafficking - all without a declaration of war. He declared war. We did not declare war on Panama in return, we simply went in and got the guy. Even today nobody refers to the events of December 1989 in Panama as a "war." It was a strike, perhaps an invasion, but hardly a war, and yet it involved a nation-state and fighting between armed and uniformed and organized opponents. Even so, it is not fitting to call it a "war." Manual Noriega controlled a larger force than Osama and his fellow fanatics do, or ever will. Noriega had control of an entire nation. Osama is hiding in a cave. That does not mean Osama is not a threat, it means Al Queda is not equivalent to a nation-state or the fascist parties of the 20s and 30s that sought to obtain control of their nations.

Osama declared war against the US prior to 9/11, struck us several times prior to 9/11, but then on 9/11 he hit us hard - and Bush responded by declaring war back. That helped Osama, it did not hurt him. A fanatic with a limited following was now an opponent of the world's most powerful nation. AQ had frightened the US so much that Bush declared "war" against it. Osama must have praised Allah when he heard that.

And now General Abazaid has equated Osama, a leader of a rag-tag group of stateless individuals - dangerous, but not powerful enough to hold even a single city much less a tiny nation - with the fascist parties of the 20s and 30s. He has warned of World War Three if we do not have the "guts" to "face" Osama and his allies. Osama could not seize control of Panama if he wanted to do so - and his Taliban allies barely controlled Afghanistan and fell quickly when pressed. Osama does not control an army and never will, much less a nation that is powerful enough to present any threat other than random attacks from hidden operatives. Osama and his allies are stateless actors. They will never become state actors - and if they do they are much more easily deterrable. Their use of terror is because they have no means to attack in any other way. That is not a threat akin to the Third Reich.

The general also uses the code word "fascist" in a transparent attempt to gain support from right-wing circles where the term "Islamofascism" is common (and used incorrectly: fascism by definition is a rabid form of nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism is not nationalistic). He even suggests that Osama's ideology, one that is not the official position or ideology of a single government in the world today - no, not even Iran or Syria or the Palestinian Authority - is one that might lead to "World War III."

Think about it this way: the 19 hijackers represented less than a platoon. Assume they are enemy special forces on a mission in enemy territory - they hijack four planes and kill approx. 3,000 people. Ok. They were still only 19 guys, and at the end of the day they did not hold any territory. In fact, they had to attack civilians because any attack on military forces would be much less likely to succeed. So half a platoon represents as great a threat as that presented by the Wehrmacht? By Mussolini's divisions? By the Empire of Japan? Even back in the early 1920s when fascism was on the rise, the threat from fascism required fascists to take over a state. Anybody think an AQ-controlled state likely? Even in Saudi Arabia, Osama's home, AQ can only mount occasional attacks, and they usually fail.

Any person that is so deluded as to think Osama and his fellow fanatics represents as great a threat as Hitler or Tojo or Stalin should not be in a position of influence over our national security. Our national security strategy should be rational and based on fact, not ideology or wishful thinking. The IRA does not present as great a threat to Britian as the fascists of the 20s and 30s did. The ETA Basque separatists do not present as great a threat to Spain as Hitler did to Spain through his support of Franco. The FARC in Columbia does not present as great a threat to the world as the fascist of the 20s and 30s. All of those groups are more powerful, with more fighters and more money and more organization, than Al Queda. And all are terrorists - arguably, Christian terrorists - no Muslims among them. Do we fear a world war three as a result of their actions? Of course not. It would be silly to suggest such a thing. Yet Gen. Abazaid makes that suggestion about a group not as powerful as any of those three groups - and I haven't mentioned many other "terrorist" groups that exist today. There are many of them. There always have been.

If Gen. Abazaid, a fine infantry officer, thinks that Osama's ideology risks world war three, he has risen too far and is incompetent. He should be relieved of command. A successful attack does not mean your enemy suddenly has more strength or has gained several divisions of infantry, it means, in the case of 9/11, nothing more than that our airport security was insufficient and that we had law-enforcement agencies that were not as efficient as they should be. It does not mean that 19 guys with boxcutters are part of a group capable of achieving world war three - or of taking and holding a local post office. They couldn't even get on the planes except by hiding their intentions - had they revealed themselves earlier the airport police would have shot them. Airport police. Powerful enemies wear uniforms and attack strongly, powerless ones strike from hiding using terrorism. We need not fear the powerless, we need only consider them a problem to be solved. We are not at "war" with terrorists. We have a terrorist problem that should be solved, much like a vermin infestation requires a solution but not a "war on vermin." There is a big difference between the powerful and the powerless, between a threat like that posed by the rise of fascism in the 20s and 30s and that posed by Osama and his fellow fanatics today. Gen. Abazaid should damn well know better. If he does not know better then he should be relieved. If he does know, he lied and should be relieved.

Hysteria and a lack of good judgment led us into Iraq, led us to respond poorly and often in a counter-productive way to the threat of terrorism posed by Osama and his allies, and in any case officers are expected to possess good judgment. Gen. Abazaid, for all his impressive and spectactular background in the Rangers, does not have the judgment needed to be in charge of Central Command.

He should go.

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Ian Whitchurch (mail):
There is also the judgement as to the most effective way to confront.

Margaret of Parma was much more successful with her co-option strategy against the Calvinists than the Duke of Alva was.

And Alva ran the best army in Europe, and had the guts to confront the Calvinists wherever and whenever.

As to the success of Alva's strategy, there is to this day there is a country full of Calvinists called 'Holland'.

Ian Whitchurch
11.20.2006 8:45pm
IRRsoldier (mail):
JD,

As always, a great post. Wonderful analysis. I think your central thesis can be distilled even more succinctly: Abizaid is attempting to "rally the base" on Iraq. His comments are the thinly veiled partisan politics expected from Tony Snow.

Abizaid, Odierno and others are proof of the deep politicization of the Army officer corps under the Rumsfeld/Schoomaker purges of 2002-2004. Dozens of competent officers were cast aside for not sharing Schoomaker's "vision" for the Army. Some, like GEN Kevin Byrne (the Army's #3 four star), were publicly humiliated on specious accusations of personal misconduct and silenced.

What can be expected from an Army where the corpulent Schoomaker and Cody call the shots? These are leaders devoid of nuance and largely uneducated in comparison to the men that occupied their positions before them. Schoomaker with his "warrior ethos" and wearing of ACUs to the most inappropriate of formal occasions is a walking punchline. Just watch him bumble through hearings and press conferences on C-SPAN Is there any wonder why other senior Army leaders behave similarly, especially the ones he fast-tracked.

I believe that Abizaid knows better. Unfortunately, the Army's senior officers that do know better have either been silenced or go-along-to-get along in the Schoomaker mold and dutifully troop around in ACUs to the halls of Congress and the AUSA convention.

Another point worth mentioning is the overt politicization of military affiliated organizations. The MOAA is perhaps the most stridently partisan of the bunch. It could very well appear like a policy/PR arm of the RNC to the uninformed. The AUSA has also taken on a similar tone in its recent periodicals. This months "AUSA News" prominently featuring Schoomaker in his ACUs at a formal gathering and portrayed the corpulent CSA in a most reverential tone. Additionally, the Reserve Officers Association, of which I'm a member, has recently taken a tone that attempts to "out right wing" the MOAA. The ROA is now cosponsoring Heritage Society events and its November magazine issue was replete with neocon talking points, a transcript of a Bush midterm campaign speech and a liberal dose of "warrior-speak."

We are at a cross-roads here. The generations of officers spurred to serve because of the draft are all officially retired. Unless something drastic is done to restore political balance in our senior Army leadership, we are in for a very dark road ahead.

Yes, Abizaid should resign. Not for stupidity, but for allowing bald partian politics to trump military candor.

I wonder if the Army can recover from the wreckage wrought by the likes of Schoomaker, Cody, Odierno, Boykin et al?
11.20.2006 9:39pm
IRRsoldier (mail):
Speaking of Abizaid ....

I just read that he gave a talk at Harvard last Friday in ACUs! Way to go Abizaid. You compare AQ to Nazism and then go talk at an Ivy League school like you're a private in a motor pool or a 2LT in Ramadi!

From the Boston Globe ...

At his address at the Kennedy School forum, Abizaid was asked on several occasions why American public opinion had turned so decidedly against the war, and he consistently said that the despair he felt in Washington was not reflected in the field among American or Iraqi soldiers and officials.

He pointedly blamed the American media for its criticism of the US military in Iraq and said coverage of the war had led to the perception of a failed policy.

"We can't worry about the 24-hour news cycle; we've got to worry about where we come out in history," he said.

"We absolutely are in the stage where we have got to make this work," he said. "We need to start having better effect against the sectarian violence within six months."

Abizaid said the stakes were high in Iraq and in the global struggle against the rise of violent Islamic extremism, which he has dubbed "the long war."

"I believe our failure to address the major problems of extremism can lead to World War III," he said.

The speech was part of a yearlong calendar of events at the Carr Center titled "The Long War Series."

At the end of a grueling week in which he was barraged on Wednesday by the Senate Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill with questions and criticism about the war, Abizaid joked with the audience about why he wore camouflage fatigues instead of his green dress uniform for the evening.

"I usually wear my green uniform," he said to a polite round of laughter. "But there was so much blood on it, I had to come in this uniform."

---- My God! With tone deaf leaders like these, it's amazing we made it this far. Wearing desert boots to a University is NOT the way to open minds and share ideas.
11.20.2006 10:19pm
Publius:
I second the kudos for a resounding post, JD. Well done.

But then there is this:

"This quote shows that Gen. Abizaid should be relieved. Now. Before he can further damage our national security.

"Gen. Abazaid, I must confess, is a stud. He is a light infantry leader that has lived the Ranger Creed. His history of command is one of inspiration, of dedication, and I respect his service and his incredible military resume. He is a better officer than I could ever hope to be on my best day. This is not a "perfumed prince" like some generals are alleged to be. He sought out the toughest assignments and succeeded in them. He deserves respect. I respect him.

"And he should be relieved of command.

"Either he is in way over his head - or worse, he is a "yes-man" afraid of confrontation with his superiors. A history of physical courage is not an indicator of moral courage. They are different forms of bravery. He either does not understand the nature of the threat presented by Osama Bin Laden, or he does understand and prefers to support a course of action he knows to be wrong because his superiors want him to do so. Regardless, he needs to be relieved of command."

You spend your entire post saying absolutely righteous things about this poor excuse for a military officer, a right-wing talking dog without a clue as to what he's doing, and you respect him? You want him fired "before he further damages national security," and you respect him? What's this "stud" shit? This ain't the playground. People such as Abazaid are not good people, no matter how many stars they may wear or how great they were at some grand field exercise somewhere.

I like IRRsoldier's post a lot. He nails these guys. Are Schoonaker and Cody that porky? They are old guys after all, but...wow. It's clear this is not your mother's Army or general officers and it's time those of who care recognize that.

I'm a member of MOAA and I share IRRsoldier's reservations about these military societies. Speaking for MOAA only, I know a lot of the membership does not share the politics. What happens in MOAA is that the board of directors—which is fundamentally responsible for resolutions, etc.—is comprised of mostly generals/admirals retired within the past ten years. Well, gee, they're political. What a surprise. Then, a lot of the membership is old dogs—even older than me, and that's old—from WW2 and Korea. The most vociferous right-wingers from Vietnam were more senior there. Those of us who were kids in Vietnam don't agree with a lot of MOAA's crap. Someday I'll discuss an article of mine that was published in MOAA's monthly magazine. Hint. It wasn't favorable to MOAA's position. In fairness to the association, the MOAA president insisted I write it after I sent him an email protesting the association's position on a proposed constitutional amendment.

Fire Abazaid. Fire Casey. Fire Schoonaker. Don't buy or read books written by Franks or Powell.
11.20.2006 10:20pm
JD Henderson (mail):
Publius, my point about his past performance was to ensure nobody would think his Ranger tab or combat scroll or past heroism means he necessarily has to be competent in his current position. Those that think that way often defended Gen. William Westmoreland by citing his impressive military resume and ignoring his performance in Vietnam. Many might defend Abazaid by asking if critics have a Ranger tab, or if so, if they commanded Ranger units like him, etc.

The fact is that he was and is quite an impressive man with a track record of success in difficult and challenging positions in highly visible units.... until NOW.

So yes, he is a stud. Yes, he has a very impressive track record prior to 2003. And yes, he has failed and has shown through his actions that he should be relieved.

You can like and admire officers who are relieved of duty, and you can hate and despise those promoted while admitting they deserved the promotion. It is nothing personal. Gen. Abazaid has served his nation well.... until now. And now is what counts, not what you did for your country last Tuesday or 15 years ago in a Ranger battalion. I don't take anything away from the man, I just think he is incompetent and should be relieved and replaced by somebody more capable, somebody wise enough to understand the threat Osama presents in a realistic and accurate manner.

World War Three? My ass. It is fearmongering.

As for wearing a field uniform for a speech to civilians off-post - that is a total load of crap. It is play-pretend day. There is no excuse for an officer to wear BDUs inside the Pentagon, much less inside the hallowed halls of our nation's capitol building - and testifying before a Congressional committee in a field uniform is abysmal judgment. Field uniforms like BDUs are for the field or for garrison in a line unit. Dress uniforms are called for when civilians would wear a suit and tie, such as at attorney appearing in court or, geez, a person testifying before Congress. Appearing in BDUs in circumstances like that makes me think of the T-shirt wearing rednecks on Judge Judy. If it is disrespectful of Judge Judy I can't imagine what wearing ACUs to testify before Congress implies. I know that were I to appear in court in a t-shirt and jeans and claims I was an attorney would not go over very well - nor should it.
11.20.2006 11:48pm
wisedup:
wait for the appearance of the "actual" blood-stained BDUs.
probably on Fox
11.21.2006 12:00am
Diogenes (mail):
This quote shows that Gen. Abizaid should be relieved. Now. Before he can further damage our national security.

Chill out ya big bully.. As far as I'm concerned, the stuff you put in your post is even more outrageous.

It is YOU who is showing the utter lack of understanding about the nature of the ideological threat the world is facing from those groups who hold a Jihadist agenda.

The fascists were state actors. Because they were state actors they were deterrable - and because they were state actors they represented a threat to other state actors.

Yeah.. and Mussolini, Hitler, and Stalin were born into being "state actors"? You seem to forget that these ruthless individuals, representing different "flavors" of totalitarian ideologies rose from relative obscurity to incredible power in very short periods of time.

I mean GEEZUS!! Does anyone have to recount to you the rise of Hitler from the leader of an obscure ideology to someone who was able to terrorize the entire world??

Do you honestly think this can't happen again? If you do, then maybe you need to have a serious reality slap.

There are over 1 billion Muslims on this planet JD, with over 300 million being Arab. And of that billion+ membership, some 40% are under 22 years of age. In Saudi Arabia, 50% of the population is under 22 years old.

And to make matters worse, I don't think I have to remind of you of the incredible corruption and repression that pervades these societies. They see this political and economic corruption, and how the West is safeguarding and protecting it, and it's no wonder we're perceived as an enemy of Muslims.

So it's little wonder, when there's insufficient evidence of economic or social progress from western values that have underpinned some of these regime, that there's going to be a reactionary longing for a religious answer to their problems.

Get that through your head JD... it's demographic. The Muslim world went through a baby boom and its youth are growing up just as dissatisfied and idealistic as those '60's radicals that spawned the SDS (and ultimately the Weathermen), as well as non-violent and violent activist radicalism. When there is an excess of young people looking for a purpose in their lives, they are extremely susceptible to radical, AND REACTIONARY, ideals.

And it's no different for Muslim youths. Radicals are advocating reformist and democratic ideas, while the reactionaries are pushing for rebuilding an Islamic empire. And just as the Jihadist are displaying their violent force of will in purveying their reactionary agenda, we must display just as much committment to purveying the radical ideas of democratic rights and religious tolerance. And if that means we must stand ready to use military force to confront and defeat the reactionaries, then that's the way it must be.

Abizaid know this. He's Arab, although a Lebanese Christian. He understands that the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) which is pervasive throughout the Muslim world is the politcal foundation of Jihadism. He understands that the MB represents the equivalent of the reactionary religio-political ideology that has to be either moderated, or neutralized. The Muslim Brotherhood is the religious/political equivalent of the Nazi party that threatened Weimar Germany; or just as Marxist-Leninism overthrew the aristocratic order in Russia and plunged that country into decades of terror and economic retardation.

And something else that Abizaid recognizes is that Al Qai'da and it's affliated sub-groups, are the militant wing of the Moslem Brotherhood. Ayman Zawahiri was a prominent member of the Egytian Muslim Brotherhood, first forming his Egytian Islamic Jihad (which was responsible for killing Sadat) and then later joining Bin Ladin.

Once again JD.. The Moslem Brotherhood is a powerful force throughout the Sunni world, despite the attempts of many governments to stamp them out. They are the equivalent of the fledgling Nazi and Communist parties, waiting in the wings until conditions are right for them to seize power and implement their global agenda.

But before you bluster on that none of these Arab countries are neither an industrial, nor military, threat to the west, please recall where the majority of the world's energy supplies originate from. Let the Muslim Brotherhood control that oil supply and use is as an economic weapon, and see how quickly the pendulum shifts against the US and Europe. Furthermore, think about the fact that Al Qai'da represents the perfect non-state actor for the purpose of undermining and terrorizing those regimes/governments that are defying the goals of the Muslim Brotherhood.

It's truly sad that people like you can come out and criticize leaders like Abizaid for warning the world of what's at stake in this struggle. You, seemingly, can't understand the potential risk of ignoring these militant Jihadist groups as they seek to violently destroy the existing governmental authority in their countries and implement their own political/religious agenda.

Usama Bin Ladin, Zarqawi, Zawahiri, Abu Ayyub Al-Masri, are all Generals JD. They are the ACTION ARM of the Muslim Brotherhood. They are NOT the political face of the Jihadist movement JD. The Moslem Brotherhood is the poltical face of Jihad. They are the equivalent of the political wing of Al Qai'da. Al Qai'da and its affiliated groups fight on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood. They depend upon their supporters in the MB to recruit and financially and logistically support their activities.

Muslim Brotherhood "Wiki"

Muslim Brotherhood in Europe

More on MB in Europe

JD, think of Al Qai'da and its affiliated groups like this. They are the "storm troopers" that the religious elite seek to use for tearing down the old governmetnal order so that the powerful religious clerics can implement their goals of creating Islamic states, and ultimately, the restoration of the Caliphate.

Let this happen and the Muslim world will find itself politically and economically regressing hundreds of years and laying the groundwork for an ultimate confrontation with the secular west.

Yeah.. you go right ahead calling for Abizaid's resignation JD. And while your at it, think about the repercussions implicit in your naive perspective of the forces at work in attempting to shape the young people growing up in the Middle East.

We may all know that any restoration of the Caliphate is a ridiculous fantasy that will result in nothing but oppression and intolerance for hundreds of millions of muslims, as well as death and destruction for thousands, if not millions, of people. But that didn't stop the German people from harboring visions of European empire, now did it?

And given half a chance of taking root in the Muslim world, I dare say the odds are just as great that the Arabs will make the same horrible mistake, as the cost of tremendous loss of blood and treasure on all sides.

Something for you to ponder the next time you opt to write something so incredibly inane.

It's just a damn shame that my printer doesn't print on toilet paper. Your article would be a prime candidate.

Diogenes
11.21.2006 12:08am
Ael:
The surprising thing about this article, is that many people would consider it surprising!

AQ is not a peer to the USA, unless it is transformed into a peer by the actions of the USA. (Those old stuffy protocol officers really do have a point when they insist on precedence, etc)

This article is merely a statement of the obvious.

[places tin foil hat firmly on head]
Since it is so obvious, either everyone in Washington is a doofus, or there is a greater purpose at work.

Perhaps, when you loose your cold war opponent, it makes more sense to grasp at any opponent you can find.
If that opponent isn't something you can spend half a trillion dollars on, oh well, maybe you can make them into something more fearsome.

Who knows, if you bellow at them long enough, and lash out at enough neutrals, maybe you can remake them into a serious opponent.
11.21.2006 12:23am
JD Henderson (mail):
Well, generally if Dio is against something I wrote I know I am on the right track.

While Dio fears "the Muslim world" and describes the Muslim Brotherhood and how they will rape Grandma and tear down your barn and steal your car, Egypt defeated the Muslim Brotherhood quite effectively some time ago. As for the Jihadist agenda, I do understand very well how fascism came to be in Wiemar Germany, Dio. And given your unquestioning support of the Bush administration the past two years on this blog, I am sure that you do not. The rise of fascism was a result of virulent nationalism. Islamic fundamentalism is different and must be addressed differently, but in any case we do not face a single nation ruled by Osama or his allies. However, Dio, the unreasoning fear of "Muslims" led many to think we did, in Iraq.

How did that turn out? Dio, I don't disagree that a rise in extremism is possible. I do not, however, fear "world war three" from Osama and his fellow ideologues, and strongly believe that "waging war" against Osama and company is a way to help their fanatical cause, not hurt it.

Here are some links:

The New Middle East

France and Its Muslims

Beware of What You Wish For

While Dio fears Islamic terror is inherent in Islam itself, in the 1960s it appeared socialism was inherent in Islam itself, and in the 1940s fascism appeared to be part of the German national character. And of course those "inscrutable" Japanese had to be interned and could not be left to roam unchecked in California during WWII.....
11.21.2006 12:28am
Diogenes (mail):
While Dio fears "the Muslim world" and describes the Muslim Brotherhood

I don't "fear" the Muslim world any more than I fear the Christian, or Hindu, world... In fact, some of my fondest memories of Iraq were the moments I spent hanging with my muslim friends smoking a Shisha and talking about the plight of the muslim world in the face of this Jihadist threat. Muslims are people too. And the majority of them want the very same thing we want.. a better future for themselves and their families.

What I "fear" are totalitarian ideologies masquerading as religious militancy.

And I would be just as "fearful" of Christian fanatics attempting to violently force the world to convert to Christianity.

And just what makes you think that a previously illegal Muslim Brotherhood gaining political legitimacy in Egypt equates to it being "wiped out"?

Was the Nazi party "wiped out" when it gained political entree to Weimar Germany's political structure? Has Hizbullah been "wiped out" by it's political presence in Lebanon's government?

Yeah.. Mubarak made great stride in disrupting their militant factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is why Ayman Zawahiri and Abdul Al-Rahman were forced into exile (and the latter eventually into the loving care of a US prison for his part in the 1993 WTC bombing). But it's a bit premature to foolishly discount their ability to carry out their Jihadist agenda via the Egyptian political process.

Egypt is the most populous Arab nation and what happens in that country can have a dramatic impact on the rest of the Arab world. So they are taking a dramatic step forward by integrating the MB into the political process. But they also may be, as we have seen in Lebanon, holding hands with the devil if the MB does not stand by it previous renunciation of violence. It was this renunciation that caused a split that led to Zawahiri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement.

CFR assessment on Egypt's MB movement

Egypt keeping MB boxed in

Egypt faces some tremendous economic and demographic pressures. And the strong showing of the MB in recent elections makes it difficult for Mubarak to undertake some of the much needed economic and social reforms. And of course, the pervasive corruption that pervades Egyptian business and politics means that giving the MB legitimacy might back-fire unless they are also made politically responsible for coming up with answers.

In sum, and probably a very controversial statement, the MB are nothing more than the muslim equivalent of the extreme left faction of the Democratic party (or for that matter, the Moral Majority of the Republican party). They are most powerful when they are in a position of criticizing the prevailing political administration. They have nothing to politically gain by sharing responsibility for reforming the current system since they have no viable solutions, or see the current system as being an antithesis to their political goals. So the MB will find most of their power deriving from a strategy of undermining the current government from within and convincing the Egytian people that Mubarak and the NDP are leading Egypt to ruin by following non-Islamic policies. And when enough Egytians become convinced of this because they aren't seeing political and economic reforms that benefit them, then we'll see who's "wiped out".

JD, you're playing a very dangerous game by flippantly discounting the power of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world. I've only dealt with Egypt here. But when one looks at what Hamas (another offshoot of the MB) has wrought in Palestine. They know they can't run an economy without major financial subsidies from the world, so they have to fall back on pursuing a war against Israel as a destraction for the inherent economic incompetence of their ideology.

And Syria is another strong bastion of the Muslim Brotherhood. And consequently we've seen their support for Al Qai'da insurgents in Iraq. Please recall what Hafez Al-Assad did in Hama in 1982 as he tried to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood there. And the situation in Syria has not gotten any better.

Dio, I don't disagree that a rise in extremism is possible. I do not, however, fear "world war three" from Osama and his fellow ideologues, and strongly believe that "waging war" against Osama and company is a way to help their fanatical cause, not hurt it.

And sitting on your @ss while they proceed to "talibanize" the Muslim world isn't going to hurt their cause either. If anything, it's only going to encourage them because they will perceive people like you as weak and unwilling to spill our blood confronting them.

Bottom line, if we're not willing to do what is necessary to prevent the Jihadists from violently prosecuting their war of aggression in the Muslim world, then what makes you think the current regimes are going to stick their necks out? And what happens when they find their militaries riddled with Jihadist infiltrators?

Mubarak discovered what happens when that occurs since it was Sadat's death that brought him to power. And Musharraf has discovered the same thing. Even Saddam discovered the "efficacy" of playing ball with the Muslim Brotherhood by building numerous mosques, and putting "Allah Akhbar on the Iraqi flag, all while at the same time officially outlawing the MB's literature. But as events have shown, subsequent to 2003, the MB existed in Iraq, and in particular, was infiltrating the Iraqi Intelligence Service.

And you'd better not disagree that a rise in Muslim extremism is possible. Because 9/11 should have shown you that the US need to be overthrowing totalitarian despots for it to be attacked.

And despite what you choose to ignore, secular despots like Saddam, and now I fear Assad, are finding themselves more than willing to lend support to the Jihadists in a cynical attempt to prop up their own regimes. All the overthrow of Saddam has done is accelerate this INEVITABLE process.

And why inevitable? Because, once again, the demographics are driving it. The current regimes are fighting a losing battle in providing for the aspirations of their people. And those who can afford to do so, are leaving.

And those who are left are p*ssed off.

Diogenes
11.21.2006 1:58am
Diogenes (mail):
Correction: Because 9/11 should have shown you that the US *does not need* to be overthrowing totalitarian despots for it to be attacked.

And just for a little something extra so this post doesn't go to complete waste, for those of you worried about ATGMs and RPGs, here's something of particular interest:

Quick Kill versus Trophy APS

Diogenes
11.21.2006 2:04am
JD Henderson (mail):

And you'd better not disagree that a rise in Muslim extremism is possible. Because 9/11 should have shown you that the US [does not] need to be overthrowing totalitarian despots for it to be attacked.
Dio's worldview is common, but that does not make it right.

Dio, there are MANY threats to our national security and always have been. Your emphasis on Islamic terrorists is, however, misplaced. There is no way to convince you of this if you don't know that already.

But I don't hold you to the same standard as the head of Central Command. If commanders responsible for strategy and advising Congress do not know better than you, they should be fired.
11.21.2006 3:21am
oldnumberseven (mail):
It is all pretty comical coming from a chap who calls himself Diogenes.
11.21.2006 3:23am
Ian Whitchurch (mail):
Part of what is so frustrating about Diogenes is the massive disconnect between his perceived problems and his perceived solutions.

This is the key para of his tirade

'So the MB will find most of their power deriving from a strategy of undermining the current government from within and convincing the Egytian people that Mubarak and the NDP are leading Egypt to ruin by following non-Islamic policies. And when enough Egytians become convinced of this because they aren't seeing political and economic reforms that benefit them, then we'll see who's "wiped out". '

If you accept this, then the key is not force of arms, but in assisting economic development and reform.

Spending a gazillion dollars in Iraq, therefore, should be immediately abandoned, in favour of, say, supporting export of Pakistan's textiles to the USA.

Oops, that died on Capitol Hill when GWB was *absolutely* unwilling to spend any political capital to save it - see for example

2002 article from USA Today

Similarly, rather than allow the Taliban to make a killing on the Opium market in Afghanistan, have Uncle Sam buy the damn crop and burn it - and then offer price supports for alternate crops. It's either that, or have farmers sell just about the only crop that can be profitably transported out of Afghanistan to the Taliban.

And while we're about it, defuse the argument that the USA is anti-Islam - a misapprehension that the fact that General Boykin still has a job does nothing to defuse. Uncle Sam can and should be building mosques and supporting madrassas - and while we're about it, wheres the American University in Kabul, and the American Technical and Medical Colleges in Herat, Fallujah, and twenty other cities.

Yeah, this will cost. But if there is one advantage that the West has over Al Qaeda and friends, it's cold, hard cash.

Ian Whitchurch

PS Diogenes, I really, really strongly recommend you examine the mistakes made the Catholic party in general, and the Spanish in particular, during the Long Sixteenth Century. You appear to be repeating most of them.
11.21.2006 5:13am
Richard (mail):
Diogenes - you just get sillier and sillier. And more and more dangerous, too. In many ways, it's not Osama bin laden who's the modern-day Hitler, it's you. You're the one casting an entire race/religion (Arabs specifically and muslims more generally) as the dagger pointed at the hearts of the righteous. And your demographic time-bomb story scares me: do you suggest the only solution is to forceably sterilise the Arab world?

Your answer, no doubt, is that you don't mean that at all. That you want to see American might and justice (which, incidentally, are not the same thing...) kill the sowers of the seeds of extremism so that all these young Arabs can grow up in the righteous glow of democracy, liberal capitalism and consumerism. Well, you know, the biggest single cause of jihadism is... Amercian arrogance about just those factors.

Live the dream, demonstrate *by example* that Project USA is objectively the pinnacle of civilisation and stop telling everyone else how to live. And, most definitely, stop starting conflicts you have no idea how to end which merely radicalise the very people you ought to be winning over. *That* is why comparing AQ to Nazism is so dangerous - especially coming out of the mouths of generals.
11.21.2006 5:18am
Ian Whitchurch (mail):
The other strategic reason is that an unbiased observer can smell the fear and panic coming off Diogenes.

Diogenes sees them as a force capable of defeating the West.

I dont see AQ and freinds as a existential threat.

I see them as a law enforcement problem - just another gang of politically motivated criminals, who were capable of pulling off the occasional big operation until Osama Bin Laden ran out of cash.

Which image is a better recruiting tool for those disaffected, for whatever reason, with the West ? Join big bad Al-Qaeda, that has the likes of Diogenes in a panic and calling for extra-judicial torture, detention and murder, or join a criminal gang with anti-Islamic ideas about suicide ?

Ian Whitchurch
11.21.2006 5:41am
Richard Cownie (mail):
"And to make matters worse, I don't think I have to remind of you of the incredible corruption and repression that pervades these societies. They see this political and economic corruption, and how the West is safeguarding and protecting it, and it's no wonder we're perceived as an enemy of Muslims."

For once I can agree with something Dio says. Yes, the
West - and the USA in particular - bears responsibility for
the rotten state of the Muslim world. In other words,
we've screwed them. My suggestion for a remedy is that
we STOP SCREWING THEM!

How hard is this really ?

The comparison to Hitler is as ludicrous as ever. Germany
in the early 20th century was a world leader in industry,
technology, and science. No country in the Middle East is
a plausible rival to the USA. And the most likely
candidates for a radical Islamist takeover are Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan, two countries which we currently
aren't doing a damn thing to fix. So it's hard to see
any connection between the current strategy and reality.
11.21.2006 7:38am
Dale Anderson (mail):
Looking back, this all comes from high level leadership that literally paniced after a single attack here in the US, declared war on an emotion(terror) and has flailed about the world ever since trying to fight it.
11.21.2006 8:04am
FDChief (mail):
I have to both agree with JD and laugh cynically at the same time.

Fire Abizaid? Aaaaaand who would be doing this? Ummmm...let's see...maybe the same people who decided that that deep geopolitical thinker Ray Odierno was the best choice to return to the Iraq he so vigorously attempted to depopulate back when he was the freakin' CG of the 4ID? Those people? The same people who have been back of Abizaid all along, supporting his incompetent "generalling just well enough to lose" COIN campaign in Iraq? Those people?

JD, I'll bet that the other oldtimers here; Al and Publius will back me up when I say that we are now seeing the result of the past thirty years of selecting our military leaders by their ability to swim, sleek and supple, through the OER process. A generation of media-savvy, public-relations-oriented "warriors" who know that their only real peer foes sit next to them in the congressional briefings wearing blue or OD suits.

And when you think about it, it's more than just internal promotion policies. It's that we haven't fought a real dangerous enemy - existentially dangerous enemy - for over 60 years. We're like a fat, old dog who expects praise for "hunting" field mice. Remember when Norm Schwartzkopf was a "genius" for executing (moderately poorly) a single-wing envelopment of a stationary Third World Army? How Fred Franks got similar praise for rolling up that same beaten army twelve years later?

I've said this before, and I'll stand by it: I haven't seen a poorer crop of "generals" produced by this country since 1861.
11.21.2006 8:21am
Nathan (mail):
JD:

As with Gates, you might try doing a little research first. If you don't think that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, Bin Laden's goal of a new caliphate and the demographic trend leaning toward making Europe Islamic (and not an assimilated Islam as in the U.S.) may pose an existential threat to our world......you're an idiot.

Seriously, try learning something about 20th century middle eastern history. Something which I'm afraid Abizaid knows a heck of a lot more about than you.

I understand your Bush hatred, I'm disgusted with him too -- but talk about throwing out the baby with the bathwater. I've got a fucking hole in the ground a half mile from my apartment to show what these guys can do with conventional means...just wait til they get a nuke (and it will happen).
11.21.2006 9:33am
mycat (mail):
If Al Quaida is as dangerous as thhe fascists, shouldn't we have a draft?

If we are trying to prevent World War Three, shouldn't we have a draft?

The Gen. is obviously not serious--and the rightwingsers who share in this kind of talk aren't serious either. They are just making Big Noise so that they will sound macho to themselves. To speak unseriously about a war is irresponisble.
11.21.2006 9:52am
Ross Williams:
1) Let me remind people that Eisenhower was no military genius, but he was a genius at managing the bureacracy and the personalities of the generals under him.

2) Churchill did not see the growing threat of fascism. Wuite the contrary, he was a firm advocate of Britain solidifying its friendship with Mussolini as a bulwark against Germany. What Churchill did understand was the threat of a rearmed Germany.

3) Taleban style muslim extremists are essentially at war against modern western pluralism. But they are hardly the only ones. You can see the same issues in India with Hindu and Sikh extremists. You can see it in the United States with the Christian Identity movement. Some of the anti-modern movements aren't even strongly religiious based. and we shouldn't see the religion as the central factor.

What is really at stake is a willingness to live in a pluralistic society with people who are unlike you. In Iraq, that may well be everyone except the Sunni's, who are willing to live with others as long as they are in charge. But Iraq is just the tip of the iceberg. There are ethnic struggles around the world and our demands for tolerance makes us the enemy of any group that is seeking to establish its primacy. Western countries advocacy of pluralism and tolerance is a threat to their power.
11.21.2006 10:08am
Ross Williams:

If you don't think that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, Bin Laden's goal of a new caliphate and the demographic trend leaning toward making Europe Islamic (and not an assimilated Islam as in the U.S.) may pose an existential threat to our world......you're an idiot.


Quite the contrary, there isn't an industrial nation in the entire middle east even in the extremely unlikely event a "new caliphate" was established. You need to be able to distinguish between intent and capability. Bin Laden's intent is extremely evil, his capability is extremely limited.

On the other hand, the threat in Europe felt by the refusal of some Muslims to assimilate into the culture is very similar to the threat felt by some in the middle east from people who fail to assimilate into theirs. And there are plenty of people in the United States who are fearful of pluralism, just listen to the complaints about the use of spanish in some areas of the United States.
11.21.2006 10:15am
Nathan (mail):
"If Al Quaida is as dangerous as thhe fascists, shouldn't we have a draft?

If we are trying to prevent World War Three, shouldn't we have a draft?"

If the entire ME becomes militant then we'll actually need one. The key part is to avoid that. And yes, part of what Bush is doing is counterproductive to that end. But you people who have your heads in the sand and fail to see the threat aren't helping.

"Quite the contrary, there isn't an industrial nation in the entire middle east even in the extremely unlikely event a "new caliphate" was established. You need to be able to distinguish between intent and capability. Bin Laden's intent is extremely evil, his capability is extremely limited."

Apparently you haven't heard of this thing called oil. Apparently you haven't heard of nuclear weapons. I'll note that Hitler never had the capacity to invade the U.S. (and neither did Japan despite their little PR foray into the Aleutians).
11.21.2006 10:22am
Aviator47:
First Item: I am not about to speculate on what is motivating Abazaid to say what he said. He may very well have bought into the ideology that he is supporting with his misguided words. If he has placed ideology ahead of sound military doctrine, he is no longer fit to serve.

FDChief: I do not agree totally with your assessment of the GO Corps. Prior to GWB, we had some fine serving Army GOs. It was clear from the early days of Rumsnamara that he wanted to make the GO ranks less a neutral meritocracy, and more an appointed arm of the Executive Branch. Fortunately, Congress refused to entertain his legislative proposals in any fashion. Rummy then used his legitimate authority to purge the 3 and 4 star ranks of those who rose purely by merit, and replace them with more maleable folks. In 2002, 16 Army and 4 stars requested retirement while not having served a full term in their postitions. That tells us something.

Now, the 3 and 4 bangers determine who gets the first and second stars. So a subtle distillation process begins, and a lot of damage can be done in 6 years.

"Kill em all and let God sort them out" Odierno was chosen for a return to Iraq long before Rummy got the gate. He reflects the sick decisions of the civilian leadership.

Stormin' Norman went no further than CinC CentCom. I had the EAC Aviation for Third Army, and had a reasonable amount of contact with him. Never once, when I or another said, "Sir, might I suggest a different approach", did Norman do other than listen and seriously consider, often adopting the dirrerent approach. He was a good product of meritocracy.

Tommy Franks, on the other hand, accepted a mission that was foolhardy, accepted limitations that eggregiuosly violated Army doctrine, and is still trying to say that nothing was wrong, and that he was left "free to fight as he saw fit". Horsepuckey. In his case, the system that delivered him to Rummy can chalk it up as failure.

There was no room for clear thinking officers in Rummy's military. Yes, you could be very creative, as long as that creativity was wholly within the newly defined "box".

My Army has suffered a woeful wound to it's leadership, and it will take a long time to recover. But, as folks sang during WWII, "We did it before, and we will do it again."

Abazaid should be sent on his way.

Al
11.21.2006 10:38am
FDChief (mail):
Al: Hmmm. You make a good case. I remain skeptical of our current crop of star warriors but will hold my indignation in abeyance in re: your analysis - it seems sound. I might add that I had no contact with Schwartzkopf during my service and as far as I know he was always considered a solid GO (other than a rep for stack-blowing which your encounters suggest was overblown). My point is not that he considered himself a genius but that his simple left hook through the desert was hailed by others as genius, which pointed out to me the lack of credible opposition we've faced in the past thirty some years (sorry, Nathan, AQ just isn't in the big leagues nor is it gonna ever be. Terrorists, sure. Big league terrorists? Maybe. Existential threats? Naaah.)

But you're certainly right that the Rummy years will be remembered as the Night of the Long Knives for the USA general officer corps. When Schoomaker and Pace and Odierno and Franks are the "best and the brightest"...

Sadly, I have to stick by the point of my initial post. The conditions that threw the above officers up as senior leadership of the Army - those conditions haven't changed, and I can't see Gates or a Gatesian-type SecDef being able or willing to wade in and change that. As you point out, the Rumsfeldian 3- and 4-stars are now picking the 1- and 2- stars. And I couldn't agree more that this generation of officers is gonna suffer for it.

And unfortunately I'll bet that Abizaid still isn't going anywhere.
11.21.2006 11:05am
Nathan (mail):
"(sorry, Nathan, AQ just isn't in the big leagues nor is it gonna ever be. Terrorists, sure. Big league terrorists? Maybe. Existential threats? Naaah.) "

who said anything about AQ per se? a semi-caliphate with nukes beholden to the ideology of Sayyid Qutb is an existential threat. this is the part you guys don't seem to get
11.21.2006 11:26am
Carl, the 11B (mail):

War is what you wage against a nation-state, not a bunch of fanatic individuals.


Oh, I don't know. If I were Osama, or one of his many "followers" (or, better, fellow travelers) in a dusty country, somewhere far from our shores but near our oil supplies, I might say, "You know, we're not a nation state. In fact, the entire notion of 'nation' or 'state' is a debauchery, a slap in the face of Allah, Most Holy. We're not a 'virtual state' or a 'virtual army.' We are the Word of Allah writ in blood."

At times, we might need 'war,' or at warfighting skills, to attack these cultural warriors. A key debate before the invasion of Iraq was whether the US should launch a "surgical" strike against Ansar al-Islam/Jund al-Islam in an area of Kurdistan the Kurds could not control because of Iraqi interference and an influx, in 2001 after the fall of Kabul, of dozens of Arab and Afghani fighters.

Would eliminating the al-Qaeda-like jihadis (the ones Saddam Hussein, it was believed, might have used as custodians of WMD against us or our allies) have taken care of the threat? Or would it have triggered a larger, regional war anyway?

We determined to never make that decision, and so in March of 2003 we bombed the Ansar encampments and sent a brigade with the pershmerga to kill or capture those remaining.

Perhaps had we acted sooner, in a more limited fashion, we would have netted al-Zarqawi, who was titular leader of the Jund operation.

How do we respond to Laskar Jihad? Harakat al-Jihad-i-Islami? How much is military? How much should our allies do in our name?

At the end of all this, however, we're caught in the web of our own definitions. When fighting against these souls, what is "war?" Or, what sort of warmaking against them is most pragmatic?

What is "victory?" What is "defeat," either for them or us?

Is "victory" to a jihadi warrior that of the attempt, the raid, the very attempt, not necessarily the result, unless that result is mass-murder, which produces consequences that in the short-term are bad for business, but in the long span of years quite good?

If our regional goal is to boost democracy and winnow the ranks of dictators, what do we make of the primary "state" actors colluding against the nascent democracy in Lebanon (Syria and Iran?), the same ones working against the imperfect, nascent democracy in Iraq?

Is not the Baathist ideology self-consciously "facist?" Is the theological-political ideology of Qum not "Islamist?"

And how is the counter-ideology of salafism different from the Persian version?

Do those definitions really mean anything? Should they guide our short- and long-term diplomatic, economic and military response to them?

What about other OOtW that we've engaged in for the most noble of purposes? Did not our paid intervention in Guatemala not lead to more war, but later peace and a strong ally? Would our intervention in Rwanda (or, the larger regional war there) have helped avert a disaster of humanity, or created an even more destabilized zone of death?

Is even the concept of holding "territory" or "controlling supply lines" meaningless in the GWoT? What should change, our grammar of war? Our meta-narratives of how we fight or why we fight?

Or should the military -- or, at least some parts of the military -- begin to change to better address new ways of fighting, new ways of "winning" that deal more with notions of "dispossession," or "identity," and less with "center of gravity" or "politics by other means" or any other torn flag raised to honor our flaccidity.
11.21.2006 11:28am
Carl, the 11B (mail):
By the way, Phil, 'Savage War of Peace' is being re-issued by NYRB.

If you didn't read it on deployment, it's worth another peek at $19.95.


Instead of coldly analysing with courageous lucidity its tactical and strategic errors, (the French military) gave itself up to a too human inclination and tried -- not without reason, however -- to excuse its mistakes by the faults of civil authority and public opinion.


You say, 'McMaster' or 'Zinni.' I say Jacques de Bollardiere, and perhaps we say the same things.
11.21.2006 11:41am
Diogenes (mail):
Ian,

If you accept this, then the key is not force of arms, but in assisting economic development and reform.

Wow!! So the way we should have prosecuted the confrontration with the USSR should have been sending them hundreds of billions of dollars?

The same with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan? Send them "cold hard cash" and they're ideology would be defeated?

GEEZUS WEEPS!!!

I'm ALL FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT!! It's crucial to promoting the kinds of values we hold dear, including economic and political diversity. But such assistance must be directed toward governments that affiliate with our ideological political values/interests. Propping up totalitarian regimes (secular or theocratic) by massive cash infusions vis foreign aid projects only perpetuates that totalitarian regime.

I'm also not opposed to carrot/stick foreign policy aimed at behavior modification by intransigent regimes. But face some essential facts Ian.. These regimes are in power on the basis of their intransigent beliefs and coercive internal security and they are not about to compromise their ideological beliefs until they are forced to. Any money you provide to them is going to be diverted to propping up the regime.

Need a case in point? Palestine is a prime example of what happens when you send economic aid to an intransigent regime. We (the west) gave the Palestinians hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies and direct cash grants each year. We cut it off when Hamas comes to power and now they are threatening to attack us unless we resume the payoffs.. err.. grants.

In sum.. they now believe that receiving money from the West is an entitlement. That we're required to pay them "protection money" or else they'll attack us. That's the mentality you feed when you provide economic assistance to regimes that have no democratic foundations.

And if you need an even more glaring example, look at what foreign assistance to N. Korea purchased towards enhancing our national security.

Diogenes sees them as a force capable of defeating the West.

Ian.. exactly where and when have I EVER stated that I believe Jihadism has the ability to defeating and subjugating the United States? I've NEVER stated that and any such belief is as ridiculous as believing that they can defeat and subjugate Israel. Any nation publicly, or presumably (in Israel's case) holding quantities of nuclear weapons is never really going to be at risk of destruction.

HOWEVER, there are other ways of attacking the US and undermining our economy. One of them, as I specified, is using oil as a weapon. And we face the matter of continued suicide attacks, and potential use of WMDs by non-state actors clandestinely supported and directed by radical state actors such as Iran.

And were my worst case scenario to play out, and the majority of the Arab world to fall to Jihadist factions, then it would mean a regional conflagration that would result in far more loss of life than anything experienced in Iraq or Afghanistan.

I want to prevent that Ian. I want to prevent future generations of Americans being required to sacrifice their lives inflicting a "pound of cure" defeating something that could have been confronted years earlier with an "ounce of prevention". And that's going to require our being involved in the Middle East whether we like it or not. We're the only ones with the means to make a dramatic difference there.

But to create an environment where economic assistance can be properly effected, we much be willing to confront and defeat the Jihadist elements anywhere they are gaining power.

Richard

Yes, the West - and the USA in particular - bears responsibility for the rotten state of the Muslim world. In other words, we've screwed them. My suggestion for a remedy is that we STOP SCREWING THEM!

You're being intellectually irresponsible AGAIN, Richard.
We're responsible only as an enabler. The corrupt culture of the Middle East goes back FAR BEYOND the West's involvement. What we did was give them the means for a few despotic tribal families to accrue tremendous wealth and become sovereigns over millions of people.

We made them wealthy (in the case of the Saudis and PG states), or set them up in power (in the case of the British and French) to carry out our economic interests. But we didn't dictate how they distributed that wealth. We didn't force them to create intolerant and despotic regimes. They did that all on their own, as they attempted to "time warp" their societies through 500 years of social, political, and economic retardation inflicted by the Ottoman Empire.

But one thing we've never done is demand that gradual, but constant, democratic reforms and accountable government be a condition for our protection of their governments, or receipt of our foreign assistance.

And Richard, while we're on the subject, maybe it's time you acknowledge that some of our supposed "allies", and/or associates on the UNSC, have not had any particular interest in seeing progressive change in the Mid-East. Please recall that over 20% of Saddam's economic imports came from France and that he had tallied up $120 Billion in debt to various countries, the majority of which put their economic interests in front of upholding the mandate of the UNSC. That's $120 Billion in economic performance, generated by state-subsidized loans, that propped up their own economies.

All of you guys are so big on "talking the talk" over economic aid to these Arab governments. But all of you seem hell bent on avoiding "walking the walk" required to creates the conditions where that money will actually be in a position to do some good.

Diogenes
11.21.2006 12:00pm
Diogenes (mail):
Richard,

The comparison to Hitler is as ludicrous as ever. Germany in the early 20th century was a world leader in industry, technology, and science. No country in the Middle East is a plausible rival to the USA. And the most likely candidates for a radical Islamist takeover are Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, two countries which we currently aren't doing a damn thing to fix. So it's hard to see any connection between the current strategy and reality.

Where was the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe getting the fuel to put in their tanks and aircraft in 1944-45??

Where are we (the developed/developing world) going to get the energy we need to continue our economic growth?

Hitler had industrial power, but that didn't make any difference when his military equipment couldn't obtain fuel (recall the 2nd Panzer running out of fuel during the Ardennes offensive, just short of the Meuse river).

And the industrial power of the global economy is just as dependent upon the unrestricted flow of Mid-East oil.

Methinks you need to reassess your geo-political analysis before you rival Saddam in making the "mother of all miscalculations".

Diogenes
11.21.2006 12:08pm
JD Henderson (mail):

As with Gates, you might try doing a little research first. If you don't think that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, Bin Laden's goal of a new caliphate and the demographic trend leaning toward making Europe Islamic (and not an assimilated Islam as in the U.S.) may pose an existential threat to our world......you're an idiot.
Nathan, you are a prime example of those who fit the facts around their ideas rather than the other way around. Why? Becuase I repeatedly said that Osama and co. is a threat - a dangerous threat - but not one meriting "war." And not one capable, ever, of waging world war three. Your response calls me an idiot for not thinking Osama may pose a threat. Hmmm.... Well, like Dio and Bush, if you see only what you want to see and hear only what you want to hear, then yes, by those rules you are entirely correct.

The fact that there is a hole near you, Nathan, even coupled with a nuclear threat, does not make Osama into a threat akin to that posed by the fascists of World War II, or by the rise of the fascists in Italy alone. 19 guys with box-cutters does not translate into a force capable of obtaining power in a nation-state and waging world war three. Sudan is not a threat to the United States, nor is Afghanistan, because they are poor, powerless, pre-industrial nations. You get shot at and want to react as if we are facing the rise of fascism in the 20s and 30s, and you accuse me of having my head in the sand? Take a deep breath and try to get over your panic. Yes, they are shooting at you, and yes, they are a threat, but get ahold of yourself. "They" are not a threat meriting panic. "They" are not even the main threat, the most dangerous threat. There is a difference between the most dangerous and the most likely threats, and equating Osama and his merry band of fanatics, who couldn't defeat Saddam or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with Hitler's legions or the rise of fascism in Europe and/or Asia is chicken-little panic. The sky is not falling, but yes, an acorn thumped your noggin. This kind of over-reaction would lead me to relieve a platoon leader, and seeing Gen. Abazaid engage in fear-mongering leads me to believe he and you and Dio should be in therapy.

FDChief, I agree with Al that the GOs in 2003 were not the product of a broken system, they were amazing. Most had charisma, were tactically and technically proficient, and told it like it was warts and all. I saw many of them at the NTC and was impressed with most of them. In fact, when a general was a stuffed suit people talked about it because it was so unusual and so different from what we were used to seeing.

Today? After six years of purges, with the lackeys and apple-polishers appointing other lackeys and apple-polishers, the GO ranks are very different. The field from which to choose them is excellent, but those chosen are not chosen for their ability. As Al put it, they are now an arm of the executive branch rather than an apolitical military owing loyalty to the Constitution and not the president. We are screwed.

It can be fixed if enough voters demand it. I have hope (small and pitiable though it is) that Congress under the Democrats will investigate and drag out the filth and idiocy of the past six years, and this will force change. We truly need it. The survival of the republic depends on the proficiency of the Army and Marines, and most of those generals in charge today are anything but proficient. The Army and Marines deserve better leadership.

Carl writes:

At times, we might need 'war,' or at warfighting skills, to attack these cultural warriors. A key debate before the invasion of Iraq was whether the US should launch a "surgical" strike against Ansar al-Islam/Jund al-Islam in an area of Kurdistan the Kurds could not control because of Iraqi interference and an influx, in 2001 after the fall of Kabul, of dozens of Arab and Afghani fighters.
Carl, as I pointed out in my Panama example, using military force is not the same as "war." The Coast Guard does not have to declare war when engaging drug runners in a firefight. The ATF did not declare war on the Branch Davidians. And Osama and company are not a threat that rises to the level of "war." War is what you wage against an entire populace, against a sovereign state, not against a few thousand fanatics hiding in caves. As for Ansar al-Islam, the idea that Saddam might have used them as "custodians of WMD against us or our allies" is demonstrably false. They were hiding out there in the north of Iraq precisely because Saddam could not reach them there, for if he could he would have killed them. Saddam did push "Islam" in the 1990s, but not as a fanatic, more as a pandering to his religious right and with less fanatacism than Bush has toward his religious right. Saddam was a bastard, but he was also a secular leader of the secular Baathist party. Tribal affiliation mattered more than religion to him. Al Queda and its affiliates despised him more than they do the United States because of his secularism, just as they do the outwardly-religious, even fanatical, near-theocratic kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Despite the sharia law and the religious extremism of the Saudi royal family, they are enemies of Al Queda. Saddam, with his tolerance for other religions, was hated even more. And he would have trusted these fanatics with his non-existent, hypothetical WMDs? Please.

It amazes most people to learn that in Iraq before we invaded the following things were not unusual in Baghdad:
1) beer - Muslims don't drink but Christians do. It was legal.
2) Christmas music and decorations in Baghdad in December were the norm and not commented upon - it was a Christian holiday, but nobody cared or was offended
3) women in positions of power - the misogny of the Islamic fundamentalists was not practiced in Iraq.
4) Western culture - music, films, and dress. MTV. etc.

That is not a nation that shares "WMDs" (I hate that fake and misleading term) with the likes of Al Queda.

Is not the Baathist ideology self-consciously "facist?" Yes, Carl, it is. Again, that is not a party likely to share weapons with the likes of Osama.

I wish everybody could read "Savage War of Peace" but it is too leaden and plodding to be "popular."

The movie is out on DVD and well worth watching. France faced panic over the Muslim "threat" that scares Dio and Nathan so much - way back in the 1960s. They used torture and any means necessary in the war in Algeria, and they almost lost their souls. Some of the actors playing Algerian resistance leaders were actual Algerian resistance leaders.

But then, we never learn from the French. Like Vietnam, we prefer to make fun of them and then go and make exactly the same mistakes in exactly the same way and wonder why it didn't work for us.
11.21.2006 12:29pm
Nathan (mail):
JD:

sigh. I said that you didn't think they posed an existential threat. clearly you don't. I do.

I didn't say Sudan posed an existential threat, I didn't say that Afghanistan posed an existential threat, I didn't say that AQ per se posed an existential threat. But does a quasi-Islamic caliphate across the ME, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pose an existential threat? fricking absolutely.
11.21.2006 12:42pm
Richard Cownie (mail):
"Where was the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe getting the fuel to put in their tanks and aircraft in 1944-45??"

Partly from Rumania, and partly from synthetic liquid fuel
made from coal from the Ruhr. Certainly not from Iran or
Iraq, which were held by the allies - indeed, Churchill,
Roosvelt and Stalin held a meeting in Tehran.
So what's your point, Dio ? You're talking crap yet again.
11.21.2006 1:01pm
Richard Cownie (mail):
"Hitler had industrial power, but that didn't make any difference when his military equipment couldn't obtain fuel (recall the 2nd Panzer running out of fuel during the Ardennes offensive, just short of the Meuse river)."

And of course that wasn't because they didn't have oil, but
because of the vast logistical difficulty of transporting
supplies through the Ardennes forest. Which was why it was
fundamentally misguided to attack in that sector.

Anyway, we go over this argument repeatedly. Oil is a
completely fungible commodity. The global price is
determined by the total pumped and the total consumed.
If we imagine the absolute worst case of an AQ-controlled
Islamic caliphate, then what are they going to do ?
They can sell oil, or they can starve. If they choose
to starve, they won't be much of a threat to anyone and
they won't lat long. If they choose to pump oil and sell
it, say to China, then that frees up supplies for the
USA and its allies. And, IIRC, the USA currently gets
about 40% of its oil from domestic sources, and another
50% or so from Canada, Mexico, and South America, none
of which are at all vulnerable to an Islamist takeover.

The smart way to deal with our rather small use of
Middle East oil is to impose a carbon tax to encourage
conservation, and also quite burning large amounts of
fuel wth military operations (the US military accounts
for 2% of total US oil consumption).

Furthermore, there are large reserves of oil shale and
of course coal in the USA and Canada, which become
economically attractive when oil prices remain above
about $45/barrel.
11.21.2006 1:14pm
JD Henderson (mail):

does a quasi-Islamic caliphate across the ME, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pose an existential threat?
Aside from now silly the idea of a "quasi"-Islamic caliphate would be (sort of like a quasi-Catholic Vatican I suppose) the point is that such a caliphate does not exist, will not exist, and worrying about hypothetical and very unlikely threats is not the way to guide our foreign policy.

Pan-Arabism failed in the 1960s. Nathan and Dio now fear pan-Islamism, which means a united Arab world that has never united PLUS the end of the Shia/Sunni split.

Nathan, if Mexico united with all other Latin American nations with the express aim of a united Hispanic kingdom, including regaining the Southwest United States, AND they had nuclear bombs, AND they were fanatical about their goals, it would present an even closer and more immediate threat. Why not worry about that? Just because it will never, ever, ever happen is no reason not to panic - as you have shown by your irrational fear of an Islamic Caliphate that does not and will not exist.

Existential threat? Sure, in the sense of "vital to the shaping of an individual’s self-chosen mode of existence and moral stance with respect to the rest of the world." Because the lack of a powerful enemy that must be opposed or "we are all doomed, doomed I tell you!" seems to threaten your self-chosen mode of relating to the rest of the world. But a threat to our very existence? 19 guys with box-cutters, or 190, or 1,900, or 19,000, or 190,000 do not threaten the existence of the western world. And the threat from Osama and his allies is much more limited than that. Backpack bombs and hijacked airliners do not equate to an infantry brigade, they are the acts of the powerless.

We need not fear the powerless, we need only hunt them down and kill them, and we shouldn't have to skip lunch to do it. They are, even though they and you and Dio and Bush very much want them to be, not all that big a deal. Yes, 9/11 was terrible - but it was poor airport security that allowed it to happen, not some force so powerful it threatens our very existence.

Stop panicking. This isn't the empire of Japan we face, much less the Third Reich. We are not the greatest generation fighting fascism, we aren't facing threats so terrible they might end all human life like we faced during the Cold War. We face an assorted group of fanatical nut-bags, and that is nothing new. Geez.

If the panic-mongers promoting fear really believed their own propaganda they would not be trying to cut the Army's end strength even more, much less trying to cut taxes again.

Anytime a president tells you we are at war AND that he wants to cut taxes, you should really, really investigate the "threat" that justifies that war.
11.21.2006 1:44pm
Ross Williams:

Apparently you haven't heard of nuclear weapons.


Iraq didn't have any. Neither does bin Laden. Neither does Afghanistan. Pakistan already does. So we pushed bin Laden into Pakistan and then invaded Iraq. The reality is that a "new caliphate" would be no more likely to use nuclear weapons against the United States than Pakistan. Probably less, since presumably the "new caliphate" would be politically stable and Pakistan certainly isn't.



I'll note that Hitler never had the capacity to invade the U.S.


"Have you heard of the ship called the good Reuben James?"
Woody Guthrie

The reality is that World War II was a world war. Our ships were sunk by German U-boats and we were attacked by Japan destroying a good portion of our pacific fleet. They clearly posed a threat to the Untied States when we went to war.

The United States had almost no ability to influence the events in Europe during the late 20's and early 30's that lead to World War II no matter how alarmed we wanted to be. Appeasement was a British idea and they were committed to it. Without Britain, the other European countries were unwilling to challenge German rearmament. The United States was simply isolationist and that lasted long after the threat of Hitler was obvious to everyone. Hitler had already defeated France and invaded Russia six months before the attack on Pearl Harbor. Japan had already conquered a large part of China. It also seized the Phillipines and captured or killed a sizeable chunk of the existing US army.

In short, the notion that the idea of a "new caliphate" poses an existential threat to the United States is plain silly. Its not even clear such an outcome would even be hostile to the United States. We are, after all, the largest consumer of their most precious asset - oil. Is there some reason they would prefer to sell it to China or someone else? Its not like Saudi Arabia is controlled by a group of people committed to pluralistic democracy.
11.21.2006 1:49pm
Nathan (mail):
Ross Williams needs a rudimentary lesson in economics. Hint: it is absolutely irrelevant which particular producers the U.S. purchases oil from so long as we are dependent upon oil.
He is also blissfully unaware that Bin Laden was a creature of the SIS back in the late 80's and even into the 90's.

JD seems to believe that because Nasser ultimately failed so must the pan-Islamic threat. Even if this is true (and JD entirely ignores European demography), it is precisely the conflagration surrounding that failure which could be the most dangerous.

Make no mistake, Islamic militants will get a nuke. Don't assume that they're deterrable. (Well, maybe if we made it clear that we would retaliate to any nuke going off on U.S. soil by nuking Mecca.) I've noticed that JD simply ignores the nuclear dimension.

Of course the really amusing thing here is that of course there are plenty of serious scholars (such as Bernard Lewis) who do indeed find Islamic militancy to be an existential threat but since Abizaid (who knows a heck of a lot more about the ME than JD) happens to agree with them and not Juan Cole (who famously claimed before 9/11 that Bin Laden posed no threat whatsoever to the U.S. homeland) he must be fired.

There's a word for calling for the immediate dismissal of people who disagree with you -- it's called "Rumsfeldian"...and this clearly applies to JD on this thread.
11.21.2006 2:17pm
Not Really (mail):

"Make no mistake, Islamic militants will get a nuke. Don't assume that they're deterrable. (Well, maybe if we made it clear that we would retaliate to any nuke going off on U.S. soil by nuking Mecca.) I've noticed that JD simply ignores the nuclear dimension."


You may have noticed that the only entity which has discussed using nuclear explosives recently is the United States, with its refusal to rule out the use of nuclear bunker busters in an unprovoked first strike against Iran.

Not Really
11.21.2006 2:35pm
Carl, the 11B (mail):

They were hiding out there in the north of Iraq precisely because Saddam could not reach them there, for if he could he would have killed them.


There is a great deal of debate over this, even amongst Bush's most critical foes. Richard Clarke, for example, would strongly dispute this notion and label Ansar differently than you do.

We'll probably never know. Our intelligence is sealed. Various NGOs, however, side with Clarke on this. A report commissioned by the House minority came to a different conclusion.

The Kurds have been adamant that Ansar was endorsed and manned by al-Qaeda operatives and that the Mukhabarat gave it aid.

But all of this doesn't change the nature of the debate. What matters for the decision makers is what they thought to be true, and what their options were. The debate, then, was over the size of the operation, not whether an operation would happen.

Warmaking in this case -- a limited invasion of Ansar-controlled territory in conjunction with our Kurdish allies -- is quite different from a USCG cutter pulling over a suspected drug runner.

The invasion of Afghanistan was "war." The proposed invasion of Ansar's Iraq was "war."

Or, at least, that's what we've traditionally called it. From Baghdad's perspective, it would have been tantamount to same.



Al Queda and its affiliates despised him more than they do the United States because of his secularism (...)


Hmmmm. Which al-Qaeda? Do you mean the far-war al-Qaeda headquartered in Afghanistan that conducted its international operations primarily against the US in Africa, Yemen and CONUS?

Or the brand-name, near-war al-Qaeda of Ansar al-Islam, which was headed by Zarqawi's troops fresh from the battlefields of Afghanistan, where they were confederated but rivals of Osama Bin Laden's "far war" group (a more interesting question: How, exactly, did the Jordanian get himself into a Baghdad hospital and his lieutenants into northern Iraq to join up with a salafist group funded by Iraq to kill Kurds?).

Again, we see two sorts of salafistic operations under the rubric of "al-Qaeda," the "near" and "far" proponents.

Was not war against the Talibi and "far-war" al-Qaeda militaries not necessary after Sept 11, 2001 (if not before)? Would lesser modulations of force projection (such as bombing training camps, engaging in diplomatic and economic pressure, etc) have stopped the attacks on NYC and the Pentagon?

Short of war, what exactly were the options to be pursued against al-Qaeda and the Taliban government? And did this "government" constitute a "nation state" as we traditionally assume such constructs to be?

If the nutty Jordanian and his cohorts were so verboten to the Baathists, then why did they quickly join forces after the invasion? Machiavelli or Sun-Tzu will only take you so far here. What does our intel say?

Perhaps sometimes a near-war al-Qaeda proxy operating under the official stamp of al-Qaeda's far-war "hierarchy" (weasel word, they don't really share operations) finds more than common cause with Baathists and Persians? To the point that they are even supplied by them?

Just saying.


That is not a nation that shares "WMDs"


But it is a nation that shares bomb-making technology, money and materiel to self-proclaimed jihadists in Palestine and Shi'i irregulars in Lebanon?

They're hardly twins of a gaggle of Tikriti propping up a nasty dictatorship in Baghdad, are they?

And if ties to Sunni-lite secularism are so important to similarly minded Iraqis, then why did Saddam Hussein have so many problems with a restive Ramadi and Fallujah before we ever invaded?

Are there issues of kinship group identification, membership in clans or ideological differences beyond Baathism that fed these tensions?

You see, JD, it's a complex region. I would not wish to make blanket statements about what police states do and not do in their own short-term interests, against enemies they find in common cause with people of very different sorts of ideologies.

Syria's Baathist/Alawite regime is quite different from Hezbollah, yet Nasrallah could hardly find a better friend.

Alliances are fluid. So, too often, are goals of states, non-state actors, criminal networks and commercial players.

Zarqawi worked with Shi'i militants to conduct a bombing campaign in Shi'i Iraq! This is the same Jordanian who declared "short war" on the Shi'i-dominated government in Baghdad on confessional grounds!

The first CPA-initiated Shi'i-dominated Iraqi government was made up of dissidents, mostly from the former Communist, trade union or university secular groups that the supposedly pro-secular Saddam Hussein tortured to death or evicted. Today, are these Allawi sorts allied with the Badrists? Sadrists? Iranians? Coalition? Or the Sunni insurgents we like to say are more "secular" than not?

Muqtadr al-Sadr and friends have been said to have taken a great deal of Iranian money and materiel to fight against Coalition forces and Sunni militia. But he's also complained about Iranian influence over Iraq, trading on nationalistic, Arabic fears of Persian influence. He's also pointed to what he claims are Iranian agents supporting Sunni insurgents against US forces.

SCRI's Badrists, no one doubts, have strong ties to Iran, but would they abandon them if they could reach some accomodation with the Sadrists? Abdul Aziz al-Hakim might help usher in more Iranian influence over an atrophying Iraqi "state." But what would Sadr do?

Is Sadr, then, more likely to become a "friend" of the US? Or stay an enemy?

No one in Iraq seems more concerned about the growth of Iranian influence than Ali al-Sistani, even though he was born in Iran, lived in Iran and shares a certain theological (albeit not political because he's a Quietist) outlook that's more akin to Qum than Sadr City.


There are no easy answers here.
11.21.2006 2:37pm
joeybaridge (mail):
Anyone how thinks that we are facing threats equal to the rise of fascism in the 30's why are they not calling for a full national mobilization?

Isn’t any other course of action treasonous or shows that you’re just stating propaganda.
11.21.2006 2:46pm
Nathan (mail):
"Anyone how thinks that we are facing threats equal to the rise of fascism in the 30's why a